WeeklyProjections.com » Weekly Projections
My first projections of the new RotoHog season are up over on the main site. You can check out the full post here:
Week 1 Projections and “Perfect” Lineups
As most of you know I also posted late-week projections and recommendations last season. Usually prices have changed significantly and projected points have changed slightly by then. Those may be showing up exclusively here depending on whether or not there’s room for them over at the main site.
Anyway, I think there are a lot of good values out there right now and I suspect some of those bargains will be drying up soon.
I’d be interested to hear some more team values (though I suppose I can always just look them up now). I was at $364 on Saturday, in #1 at the ime by a full $7 or so, but I went out of town for the rest of the weekend and made some bad choices and now sit around $350.
It’s hard to believe we’re here already. This is the last set of projections for the season (unless RH springs fantasy NFL playoffs on us at the last minute). There are about a billion things I want to cover before we wrap up.
First, many of you probably know, but this site started as a sister project to DailyProjections.com. DailyProjections was a sort of frazzled effort in it’s first season as I bit off way more than I could chew, but I hope to step up the quality for the coming year. I hope to see the whole crew there for baseball season.
Second, if you already have, or possibly will, win a prize I’d love it if you could shoot me an email at jmhume@gmail.com. Just let me know your username and current MFL rank, or what weekly prize you won, or both. Also, let me know when you started reading the site regularly. Like I said in an earlier post I want to start tabulating some stats for our community here.
Third, fantasyfishing.com. If you haven’t heard, they’re giving away $1.7 million in prizes. Yeah, seriously. Alex has set up a league for us over there, league id: 10011, password: jibjab. I don’t know how much I’ll get into this, but it’s pretty interesting and it’s definitely worth a go.
Are you ready for some numbers yet?
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 17
Pierre Thomas is on the list despite not being in the game. I doubt Rotohog will IPO him this week, but they might. I finally have Derek Anderson in my top 5. Considering how much less I seem to like him than everyone else, I expect the rest of you have him at #1 this week. Anyway, here are some pretty pictures.
Last week I got 8 pts closer to being in 4th place. I also went from having no teams within 25 points behind me to having 3 teams in that range (all of them within 14, in fact). I guess that’s worth it; the awesomeness of one move up is more than the lameness of moving even 3 slots down.
The blackouts have expanded ever-so-slightly, but they’re a little more convenient now because they include an alphabetical list of the excluded names. Obviously everyone can figure out the names pretty easily anyway, and it’s more convenient for everyone this way.
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 16
Here are my top 10 at each position. I’m headed out, so I’ll add some analysis later. If anyone wants an explanation of any of the rankings just ask, obviously. Remember the top guys at each position are listed alphabetically (by first name).
Is it Sunday yet? With every week that passes I find it a little harder to wait, especially now that my head-to-head leagues have entered the playoffs. The black-outs will continue today. Surprisingly, I don’t think I’ve heard a single complaint. I really hate doing it, but it’s just not smart for me to be given an exact look at my lineup each week at this point.
The biggest story this week is not any of the players, but the weather. It looks like we’re going to see 30 MPH sustained winds and a nice rain/snow mix as well. I still haven’t decided where I fall on this. I’ve stated before that I think weather is overrated except for wind which will be a major factor here. I will say that if you aren’t on an unlimited budget I don’t think you can justify Brady and Moss this week. If the guys who don’t have to give up anything to play those two are on the fence, then those of you that do have to give something up should probably look elsewhere.
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 15
I’ve got some ideas for the next progression of the JJBI (”JibJab Bargain Index”) that could be really cool. Essentially, I think I may be able to set it up so that you enter your team value and it would reorder the cheatsheets for the best values based on what you can afford. I really see that as the ultimate in Rotohog cheatsheets, combining performance and price into one list, customized to your situation. My perfect lineups were an attempt to approximate that, but they only went as deep as the starting lineup without giving any personalized recommendations beyond that. Anyway, it’s a tough nut to crack, but hopefully by next season I’ll have something much more powerful.
I may be in the chat tonight, and I’ll certainly be there most of the day Sunday. Next weekend I’ll be in rural Kansas with no internet from Friday until Monday. Seriously. I almost told grandma I wouldn’t be able to make it out to see the family this year.
As I’ve said before, the later in the season we get the more dull these seem to become. I like to keep my published projections pretty conservative. I don’t make a lot of bold claims or play the “what if” game much. My goal is to give you a solid, reliable, safe list each week. The hope is that it will give you guys a solid foundation from which to jump off and make some more daring predictions. The top couple of guys at each position tend to be about the same each week and this week is no different. Those of you looking to be a bit more creative should be able to find your guys still within the top 3-6 at their position (except Derek Anderson, you guys are going to tear me up if I end up being wrong on this one).
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 14
Also, as a follow up to my explanation on why the perfect lineups are not as useful as they used to be, I’d like to present… more perfect lineups. I’ll be switching formats next week, but I wanted to publish one last set of these. Good luck!
Oh, and be on the lookout early next week for a slightly new twist on what I consider to be one of the best features at this site.
I’m working on something new to replace the perfect lineups. As I’ve said before, I think most of you have a pretty good sense of how to distribute your money at this point. I think a more useful tool for you guys would be a simple list of good plays at each position that span a variety of price points. It would probably be fairly simple to look through the list and pick them, but I love a good formula so I’ve been trying to work up something that would identify them systematically. It still needs some tweaking though.
Anyway, in the meantime, here’s my early numbers for this week. No black outs… yet.
I’m gonna make this quick because I’m leaving to catch a flight in about an hour and a half, and I’m definitely running behind. I will be in LA until Monday night, but I’ll have internet access on my hotel so I won’t be totally disconnected.
I just deleted the Dallas and Green Bay guys from the projections, they’re also not included in the perfect lineups which are a bit clunky considering most of you probably have one or two slots that already played on Thursday. Anyway, here’s my latest numbers.
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 13
As we all know strategy only gets you so far in this game, and it takes a little luck to get you the rest of the way. Clearly, including luck in the title of my post will change all our fortunes. You can thank me later.
Public Service Announcement: Green Bay and Dallas play tomorrow night. I’m sure 98% of you are aware of this, but the other 2% of you are probably grateful enough to make it worth mentioning.
It gets old putting Brady, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Addai, Moss, and Owens at the top every single week, but there’s just not much good reason to do otherwise. If your strategy has already switched to a differentiation approach, these are the guys to avoid (though it may be suicide to avoid more than 2 or 3 of them at a time).
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 13
I’ll release the “I’m Broke” lineup this evening. Brady didn’t quite sneak onto the $350 lineup, but he’s actually not a bad play there despite using nearly 1/3 of the entire budget. Warner, Westbrook, Fitz, and Winslow make all 3 lineups this week. Those Arizona guys especially are serious bargains right now. The only difference between my $550 lineup and the “ideal” lineup would be to switch Warner for Romo, but the added points are minuscule compared to the added cost.
I’ll be with family out of town tomorrow and Friday. I’m not sure what the internet situation will be, so these may be the only projections this week.
Maybe this is just because I was bad at baseball, but it seems like the week-to-week best options in football are quite a bit more consistent than the day-to-day choices in baseball. For some reason I had expected the opposite, but I suppose it makes sense. The differences in quality between NFL defenses is surely smaller than the difference in quality in MLB starting pitching. I mean there are some bad defenses out there, but there are some awful pitchers. The same is true on the opposite side as well. Not many defenses would be as “dominating,” in my mind, as a top shelf ace.
Anyway, my ideal lineup this week looks outrageously similar to last week: Brady, Romo, Addai, Westbrook, Moss, Owen, Andre Johnson, Shockey. Only one of those names really looks out of place. AJ is a great WR up against one of the worst defenses. He’s a great bargain for anyone on a budget, and a good play even for those who don’t look at prices.
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 12
I’ve included the “I’m Broke” lineup here because I wasn’t sure if I’d have a chance to get to it later. Those of you who’ve been around for a while know that I generally advocate those on a budget having all their players in approximately the same price range. The reason for this is that you pay an exponentially increasing premium for the best players. Anyway, it just goes to show how dominating Brady is when he makes it into the same lineup card as sub-$8 Kolby Smith. I’ve adjusted down the amount of leftover money in these lineups. At this point making more money isn’t really worth giving up many points because you have fewer chances to use that money to make up those points.
That’s all for now. Good luck and happy holidays!
A lot of people have expressed reservations about going with Chatman this week due to the new QB and his potential effect on the offense. I think there’s some validity to this. Perhaps the biggest problem with having a single projected point total is that it does little to express risk. You could easily have 2 guys both projected at 12 RH points in which one might be expected to score between 10 and 14, and the other between 2 and 22. Or there’s the case of the TD vulture who could score zero 2 weeks in a row and then put up 15 points. Obviously, projecting him at his average of 5 points is a bit misleading.
I theorize that this is one reason many of you on a tighter budget choose to go with Brady even when his projections and price don’t seem to warrant it. He at least appears to offer a more consistent, low-risk performance. For the record, I think the second reason people go with Brady on a tight budget is that they’re crazy.
Anyway, depending on your position and goals, a high-risk team may be much more fitting to your optimal strategy. On the other hand, at this point in the season I would bet there are many of us that are just trying to keep up with the pack and plan to worry about making that move for 1st a little later on.
Downloadable Weekly Fantasy Football Projections – Week 11
I’m going to review last week’s perfect lineups either this evening or tomorrow evening. Also, I’ll have the “I’m Broke” lineup out before the market opens tomorrow morning. I want to wait until closer to free-trade Saturday so that I can update player prices to give a more relevant suggestion.
