WeeklyProjections.com

There’s an old joke about how you should never follow the advice of someone who begins with the words, “You boys ain’t gonna believe this crap.” Actually, now that I think about it, it may be more traditional folk wisdom than a joke. I don’t really know. Either way, I’m far too lazy to look it up right now.

All I can say is that predicting week 17 is going to be like predicting preseason’s ever-popular week three. All the teams on the field, technically, would prefer to win. But are they going to let their stars actually win it for them? Hmmmm …

I have this terrible feeling that next week we will ALL be living out that NFL.com commercial, where fantasy football fans are looking crushed as the song “Had a Bad Day” plays. I’m calling 130 as a top-10 score for the week.

So how are you going to break 100 points next week? You boys ain’t gonna believe this crap …

QB1: Tom Brady vs the New York Football Giants. Thank God for Coach Hoodie. He is the biggest a-hole in the NFL, so he will let Brady and Moss do their thing for at least three quarters. And fortunately the Giants may be good enough to give them a decent game for a few minutes.
QB2: Ben Roethlisberger at Baltimore. I don’t LOVE this matchup. But I know people from Pittsburgh, and they are ALL tougher than your average NFL player. If their team doesn’t play hard, the players know they’re in for a butt-kicking as they get off the plane in Pittsburgh. And nobody wants that.
RB1: Adrian Peterson at Denver. He could go for 300 yards. Or he could go for 3. Hard to tell. I’ll take the over.
RB2: Any San Diego running back at Oakland. Why oh why does Norv Turner have to be the head coach of the Chargers??? The Raiders are so bad at stopping the run that this could have been the single greatest game in LT’s career. Sadly, he’ll probably only play a half. And that’s all you’ll need from him. Or … Norv could sit him for the entire game … WAIT!!! Who said Coach Hoodie was the biggest a-hole in the NFL!!! I think we’ve found an even bigger one … Just figure out what Norv is planning and start the RB who will be getting the most snaps.
WR1: Randy Moss vs whoever. He’s Randy Moss. What do you expect?
WR2: Santonio Holmes at Baltimore. What??? Holmes? What am I thinking? Giving a coveted starting spot to a #2 WR on a team that may not even do much? I’m out of control! You can’t stop me! If you try, I’ll just take you down with me!
WR3: Torry Holt at Arizona. Can’t you see this is the final act of a desperate man? I don’t care if it’s the first act of Henry V. I’m starting him.
TE: Do you REALLY want me to recommend someone here? This week my TE got 5 points and, ohmygod, I jumped up and down like a little girl running into her best friend at the mall. You’re better off without me on this one.
K: Stephen Gostkowski vs the New York Football Giants. Hey kid, you’re a good kicker, but you’ll never make it in show biz with a name like that. How will they fit it on the marquee? From now on, you’re Steve Smith … what??? I DON’T CARE IF THERE ARE ALREADY TWO OF THEM IN THE NFL!!!! I’VE BEEN DOING THIS SINCE YOU WERE AN ITCH IN YOUR DADDY’S PANTS!!! YOU’RE STEVE SMITH. THE ONE WHO ISN’T A RECEIVER!!!! Now be a mensch and get the hell out of here … I’m late for a meeting at Spago with Suzanne Pleshette.
DEF: Steelers at Baltimore. Did I mention that Steelers fans are tough?

So that’s it for now. Merry Christmas. Happy Chanukah. Good Kwanzah. And a successful Festivus to you all!

Sorry about the lack of posts yesterday. I spent most of the day in Manhattan, KS watching Kansas beat Kansas State in the Sunflower Showdown to go to 3-1 in the last 4 meetings (and 64-36-5 in the last 105). It was an awesome game, and despite some really glaring mistakes down the stretch, the Jayhawks were able to get it done and move to 5-0 on the season.

Our first touchdown of the game.

Game Day Chat will be up and running today. The password is still: jibjab. Come by and say “hey.”

There are too many injury updates today for me to even pretend to have them all but short story:
IN: Travis Henry, Plaxico Burress, Calvin Johnson
OUT: Marvin Harrison, Ahman Green, Laurence Maroney

Those aren’t 100%, but that’s how things look to be shaking out. Good luck today!

I’m sure most of you have heard but there are some pretty credible reports out there (nothing official) that Henry has tested positive for marijuana use. This is a second offense and would come with a one year suspension. Selvin Young’s price is spiking and it will likely continue to do so for a while.

Well, no one guessed my top 2 RBs for Week 5, and actually I was mistaken when I commented that both had been mentioned. I think Frank Gore has been forgotten a bit this week, and should have a great week. However, after examining a bit more I’m probably going to go with LJ (narrowly). Also, after reading the comments there’s no doubt that many of you will think I underrated Edge this week. I just don’t see him being a star right now regardless of match-ups. I’d rather have Portis (if he’s healthy) if I’m going to go for a heavily match-up based option.

Downloadable Weekly NFL Projections – Week 5

The ideal lineup by my numbers got a lot more expensive this week. Last Wednesday $475 was enough to field all my best options and still have $65 left over for a kicker, a defense, and some spending money. This week that number is $560 and could pretty easily hit $600 by Sunday. Let me know if my denominations of budgets for the “perfect” lineups aren’t serving you very well. It’s hard to get a feel for exactly where people are.

Edit: Frerotte looks to be the likely starter for the Rams this week. He should see some nice gains today.

Tampa Bay papers are reporting that Cadillac Williams will miss the rest of the year due to his injury today. I think they may go with Graham as the primary back, but it could certainly be Pittman, or some degree of both.

I’m at 105 points for the day, with Brady, Moss and Chad Johnson going tomorrow. I’m hoping with good games out of them I can at least maintain my place in the top 15. It’s a lot easier to move down the standings than up from here. I had a great week for profits sheerly by luck. It turns out the guys I picked up on Wednesday to start this week were pretty popular choices for the rest of the market as well. I’m sitting at about $630 now.

Anyway, if you haven’t already, check in and let us know how you did this week. Also feel free to submit some early suggestions for the Sunday Six Pack, and maybe even some guys who will be must-starts and potential sell outs for next week.

My Brian Westbrook update is that I have no update. I’ve heard reports on both sides in term of him playing tonight. If you’re brave you could wait it out and then put in Maroney if necessary. I’ll be going with Addai and hoping it doesn’t haunt me.

Well, for those of you who don’t read the comments, I moved up to 14th in the overall standings this week. I knew I was having a really solid week, but I was shocked to find myself that high on the list. I know better than to get too excited this early, but it’s encouraging to know that if nothing else I’ve had some good luck so far (which in the short-term is just as useful as talent). It was nice to see Westbrook go off after all the money I lost on him from people who wouldn’t just hold on to the dang guy. I’m probably going to try to implement a “WeeklyProjections reader standings” feature pretty soon that would list our readers who are currently in the top 100. I have a feeling there will be more and more of us as the season wears on.

Reread my previous post about Steven Jackson. That is a big deal. Depending on how serious this is it could keep him out for a big chunk of the season. I’ll keep you posted as we find out more information.

The Super Six Pack will be along tonight, as always. There are a ton of really easy ones this week (more than 6 probably), so I may throw in a “bonus pack” again. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on that, and I’ll be sure to look them over before I post my list.

Check your rosters for anyone who is on bye in Week 4 and make sure you sell them absolutely first thing tomorrow morning. I still think we’re going to see RotoHog adjust those prices before the floor opens, but we’ll know for sure soon. Those of you who own those guys try to let us know how it works out for you as I’m sure we’ll all be busy pursuing our own trading.

Very unexpected news out of St. Louis. Steven Jackson will miss Week 4 with a groin pull. Brian Leonard will start in his place.

Ahman Green is out with an injury to his left knee. Return is questionable.

Calvin Johnson landed on his back and walked off the field, but was later carted to the locker room. Return is doubtful.

J.P. Losman is still out. It’s hard to say if he’s still hurt, or if the Bills like how Edwards look.

Isaac Bruce out with an undetermined injury. Possibly a blow to the head, but I haven’t been able to confirm that.

Edit: Too much going on to update every single one (drop by the chat if you want the latest info as it happens), but Bruce has returned.

Losman took a hard shot to the knee. He played the next couple of snaps and then limped to the locker room. Trent Edwards is the back-up, already up well over $1, go grab him.

Edit: Losman was seen warming up on the sidelines so keep a close eye on this. Honestly, don’t be surprised to see the Bills stick with Edwards anyway; he’s looked pretty good.