WeeklyProjections.com » It’s Almost Here
It’s Almost Here
Hey guys, sorry I haven’t had any pre-season posts for you. Just like baseball, I feel like I’m spending too much time making the game to have any time to post about it.
The final batch of IPOs is up on the trading floor now, so there are no changes left to worry about as you search for bargains. In regards to the trading floor discussion, I can’t really say much, but it’s correct that a player’s price only changes when he is bought or sold. Supply and demand will factor into the price change obviously. All that to say, a highly-owned player is probably going to make you money, but it won’t happen instantly at the opening of the trading floor.
Last year a lot of players’ prices tanked at the opening of the market. This was because teams were created using a traditional draft and many users drafted too many expensive players and couldn’t fill out their roster, so they sold those expensive players as soon as they could. With unrestricted preseason trading, this shouldn’t really be an issue and baseball generally showed that to be true.
Overall, the pre-season trading floor definitely makes the first day of trading a little less volatile. Still, the money-making strategies are the same: identify under-priced players, follow the price change momentum, and be the first to anticipate match-ups. To put that into practical terms, right now I recommend filling out your roster with only the very best bargains (maybe 3-5 players). Tomorrow morning, pick up the guys who seem to have some momentum, and sell if they start to lose that momentum. Finally, start looking at Week 1 match-ups, and try to anticipate when the broad masses will start to transition into building their Week 1 lineups (my guess is it will be next Wednesday or Thursday in anticipation of the opening game on Thursday).
Alright, good luck tomorrow. Keep the discussion going for trading floor bargains (it sounds like Kyle Boller may be out for the season), and be on the lookout for my Week 1 projections coming to RotoHog.com.
14 Comments
1. patlee1970 replies at 29th August 2008, 11:45 am :
thanks for the post Jib. Hope to see you here as much as you can manage. At 10:45 I’m floating around 319 and change. Not too bad. Early morning was rough.
2. the pendulum equalizer replies at 29th August 2008, 7:21 pm :
@ 311 myself, hard to get a feel early on with market, seems to have just stablized all day…
3. Richard replies at 29th August 2008, 7:45 pm :
hey justin, good to hear from you. today was as I expected, which is good. Hopefully the rest of the year will go as I think it will.
My big question:
When will guys stop playing the market and buy the real deal? I saved money on Romo and T.O. by waiting for them to drop before I took them, but how long until you think the good guys will be bought???
4. Justin replies at 30th August 2008, 8:10 am :
Richard, good to see you back. That’s the big question: when do you move into starters?
Speaking generally people will tend to start buying their starters when just “playing the market” isn’t very profitable anymore, or obviously when games are approaching.
The way the market is going, and with a Thursday night game looming, my hunch is we’ll start to see a big jump towards starters on Tuesday or possibly Wednesday. That’s a total guess though.
5. Rik replies at 30th August 2008, 9:28 pm :
Justin,
You mentioned that the market is only what drives the prices. However, if someone gets injured on Sunday, will his backup’s price be adjusted before the market opens on Monday like they were last year? This will influence who I might but during the games opening week.
6. patlee1970 replies at 31st August 2008, 1:56 pm :
That is a great question to ask Rik. Let’s hope Jib is allowed to answer.
Still floating back and forth between 337-338. If I weren’t so stubborn and had dropped Farve two days ago, I’d be at 347. I am confident he will bounce at some point, so I’m still clinging. Either way, he is very likely my starter this week.
7. Crunch Bunch replies at 31st August 2008, 10:55 pm :
I got up the first trading day but have missed the next few as getting up at 6:20 a.m. on a weekend just doesn’t quite do it for me.
I’m around $333 so I’ve basically set my team and left around $40+ to pick up players that should jump on Tuesday based on week 1 results. I made the mistake of not reading the BRoy rules and ran out of trades but I’m close to $330 there too which is sort of funny.
The transaction fees have turned the baseball game into a matchup/cap game so it’ll be interesting to see how it affects football with only 17 games and bye weeks. Week 4 (the first bye week) should be interesting. Looking ahead, quite a few of the week 4 bye teams have very good matchups in week 3 (Pats vs Dolphins, Lions vs Niners, Giants vs Bengals, Seahawks vs Rams) so is it worth playing those players in week 3 knowing they go on bye in week 4?
8. patlee1970 replies at 1st September 2008, 4:06 pm :
Absolutely yes. . . . if you have the bankroll to afford it. By then we should get a good sense if Brady/Moss will be anywhere like it was last year. If they are, I plan to buy them and ride a cheap lineup for a week feeling that in the long run this would best serve my team. Good question crunch, and one we should continue discussing here.
9. Benfield replies at 2nd September 2008, 6:31 am :
Can’t you just drop those players Tuesday at 9:30 exactly on week 4 for a minimal loss, then pick them back up week 5 at 9:30?
10. Benfield replies at 2nd September 2008, 6:34 am :
PS: $364!
Those $.75 transaction fees once you break $350 REALLY hurt, but thanks to a good Monday, I managed to push through it a bit. Also, I started buying starters at $349 so they’d only cost me an extra $.10 a piece instead of $.75. I’m damn glad I did, too. I’m looking at $3 in transaction fees to buy my remaining starters instead of $7.50.
11. Crunch Bunch replies at 2nd September 2008, 9:38 am :
Benfield: last year, Rotohog widened the bid/ask spread on players who were going into a bye week so even if you were there right at the open on Tuesday, you would have lost a big chunk of your salary cap.
Now with the transaction fees this year, I’m not sure what RH plans to do so we might just have to wait until week 4 to find out.
12. Benfield replies at 2nd September 2008, 12:10 pm :
Oh ok. Forgive me if I ask stupid/obvious questions. This is my first year at rotohog. I’m a long time friend of Justin’s, and after seeing his success last year and not having a thesis project in my way this year, I decided to give it a shot.
13. Bodie replies at 3rd September 2008, 12:58 pm :
good luck benfield…you will soon be addicted…trust me
14. Justin replies at 3rd September 2008, 5:25 pm :
Unfortunately I’m not really allowed to say much about how bye weeks will work. There’s not a bid/ask spread anymore (it was a pretty confusing idea for casual users), so things will be slightly different.
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