WeeklyProjections.com

37 Comments

• 1. Lothar replies at 18th July 2008, 11:39 am :

  Awesome! Let’s get this season started already.

• 2. Lothar replies at 18th July 2008, 11:40 am :

  Oh, and welcome back, Jibjab!

• 3. Rik replies at 18th July 2008, 9:02 pm :

  Let’s Go!

• 4. Rik replies at 18th July 2008, 10:21 pm :

  You’re right Jib, not many great deals that I can see so far. Looking for last years version of the $1 dollar deal.

• 5. Benfield replies at 31st July 2008, 10:14 am :

  Sup Jibjab. I’m freaking pumped. Get them to open the market 3 weeks early=)

  A lot more good deals are obviously going to become more apparent as the preseason progresses and position battles clear up. The two notable deals I see right now though are:

  Harrison = $21
  Shockey = $11.50

  Of course, the positive news creating hype on those two could very well subside by the time the season starts…

• 6. JibJab replies at 1st August 2008, 2:56 pm :

  Yup, those 2 are going to be pretty solid I think. And Brees may get a slight bump up as well.

• 7. dbcooper replies at 3rd August 2008, 8:19 am :

  good to see jibjab and the rest of the gang back up and running here. was hoping to see some nice $1 kickers on the trading floor like folk & crosby last year, but no under $10 players are part of the first IPO list. guess with jibjab there to help with pricing, that sort of thing won’t happen this year anyway.

  I see they incorporated the same transaction fees for football as they have for baseball. football is certainly different than baseball (less trades needed for one thing), but I envision a similar team value situation. most teams will stay in the $340 – $375 range IMO, though I could see some shrewd teams maintaining $375 – $400.

• 8. Benfield replies at 3rd August 2008, 9:59 am :

  Brees isn’t available yet, JibJab. Geez, get with the program=)

  Also, I think Patrick Crayton has some good value at this point (though that’ll change if/when the Cowboys sign Chris Henry).

• 9. hirebrad replies at 4th August 2008, 10:42 am :

  What is up and welcome back everyone. I posted on the RH forum, I want to get a league together that is a more traditional format for those of us that stuck around last year.

  Hop over there and post if you are interested. I am not going to post there, but I might be able to get Coach Greco involved

  Justin, you in? Bragging rights league or something low dollar, I am broke this year.

• 10. hirebrad replies at 4th August 2008, 6:33 pm :

  RH Strategy time:

  I am going to wait until the day before the market opens, buy the players that I think are going to go up and then let the market go nuts, selling on the way up.

  With nobody buying the star players, we shouldn’t see a huge drop in their prices the way we did after the draft last year. (You don’t buy LT at $100, say oh Sh*t and then sell him)

  I have a feeling there is going to be a little more stability in the early going, which isn’t a bad thing, but tougher to make money.

• 11. AC replies at 7th August 2008, 6:39 pm :

  What do you think the Favre deal does to the prospects of Cotchery and Coles? Both had decent seasons last year and are currently priced under $20.

• 12. Steve aka outandgo replies at 7th August 2008, 7:29 pm :

  Couldn’t hurt. They’re going from a sucky QB situation to a throw it up field with a motivated wild eyed drama queen future hall of famer better one. Interesting situation that could be profitable and score some good wr3 points. Let’s keep that a secret!

• 13. James replies at 14th August 2008, 6:32 am :

  dang i feel cheated . 3 of my money makers were jacked already Boss went from $4 to $10,; Chad went from $6 to $12;and Hackett went from $8 to $11. If the prices were going to keep adjusting what was the sense in releasing the early IPO’s?

• 14. hirebrad replies at 14th August 2008, 11:12 am :

  James:

  See my strategy from above. The only thing that could bite me on the butt for is Brady (He might sell out today, when he is released), but I see some other Week 1 matchups that can play out pretty well too.

• 15. James replies at 15th August 2008, 8:44 am :

  yea if i thiought Aaron Rodgers would do good he has great matchups for week 1&2. For playing and driving his price up for a quick sell.

• 16. Richard replies at 15th August 2008, 5:11 pm :

  Hey to all!

  My bargain so far: KC defense. $3 and they ranked 4th overall in fantasy points last year… at least that’s what RotoHog says.

  My only question is: Is that really true? Stats on RH are not always accurate.

• 17. Rik replies at 15th August 2008, 10:15 pm :

  I personally don’t think the cheifs are a bargain at $3 since they will be playing the pats in NE. They’ll get their butts kicked! But, I dtill think Hackett is a bargain at $11. I also like Coles $17, Cotchery $18, Thomas Jones $30 and Farve at $34. And lastly Delhomme at $26. Who does everyone else see as gainers.

  Hope we can get some more discussion going. I miss all the preseason info we had last year. Justin, I think it’s time for another word from you.

• 18. Rik replies at 15th August 2008, 10:16 pm :

  OH, you could through in the Jets D for $7 too since they open against Miami.

• 19. hirebrad replies at 16th August 2008, 3:14 pm :

  I’ll be honest guys, I am holding off on analysis until the day before the market opens (Or probably that weekend). As everything changes the perceived value of these players is going to shift quickly. My only concern right now is making money on the market. I would rather buy 10 players at $3 that go up to $10, than have my roster in place right now. Make sense?

• 20. Homey replies at 16th August 2008, 4:53 pm :

  Brad I like it..
  Nice strategy.
  I have a few thoughts.
  When do the transaction fee’s start?

  My issues with your strategy are that your taking a risk that players will go up as soon as the market opens. Why would that happen?
  Why wouldn’t most people buy their teams early and not care when the market went live?
  Also if the big time players go up a lot then you run the risk that even though you made money they are still out of reach.
  What key details will make players increase the first few days?
  I strongly believe that a lot of the sleeper players will not increase until they have played 1 game.
  As well as players won’t drop much until after their first game.

  Just my thought.
  Please tell me where I am wrong.

• 21. Rik replies at 16th August 2008, 6:57 pm :

  I’m leaving for Ecuador for 2 weeks on Thursday. And I won’t return till Sept.6th. So I need to have a strat in place before I leave. Either wait till I get back or pick up guys that should climb and sell on the 6th and then set up my line up.

  This is so different from last year. Is there a period of free trading after they go live? And, how long will it last? I’ll be gone for most if it.

• 22. Richard replies at 16th August 2008, 8:45 pm :

  Rik:

  Looks like it’s gonna be like baseball. Small transaction fees with a low team value starting at the open market start. As your team value grows, so do the transaction fees.

  It’s a fair system that’s easy to work in. I think you’ll like it. It curbs teams from making freakish money early… IMHO

• 23. Richard replies at 16th August 2008, 8:47 pm :

  I was talking about a money maker with KC Def. If it’s like baseball, values cant fall lower than $3, and many teams might try to skimp and buy defense cheap just before the first game.

  I’m playing Jacksonville Def.

• 24. hirebrad replies at 16th August 2008, 9:50 pm :

  Homey,

  The key is to find players that you think people are going to pick up late to round out teams, but you bring up a valid point. The stability in prices not going down when the market opens will also probably lead to stability in prices not going up too high.

  Hmmmmm I have to rethink things.

• 25. hirebrad replies at 16th August 2008, 9:52 pm :

  Oooo, what about starting a team that allows you to have $30-40 extra for Week 1, then pick up the best players from Week 1 who you know all the newbies are going to over-react and buy when the market opens?

• 26. James replies at 17th August 2008, 3:32 am :

  or take for example Larry Johnson & Thomas Jones. There are supposed to be 1 player available for evary 12 teams. If 3 out of 12 people have Jones on their roster on opening day his price may go up to 41 dollars as soon as the market opens. On the other hand if 1 out of 12 people have Larry sitting on their bench his price should drop a few bucks at opening bell. As an unexpected players(T.J) value goes up due to the demand, you would think that an overatted player (L.J.) value would decrease. I’m sure we will all understand before the market goes live.

• 27. James replies at 17th August 2008, 4:03 am :

  Or just think about Bobby Engram at opening bell compared to Jericho Cotchery. One may go up an instant $5 while the other may drop $5. Just make sure you have no Engrams on your roster at opening bell!

• 28. Homey replies at 17th August 2008, 8:04 am :

  Man I posted a comment on here 30 minutes ago and it still has not showed up. Can you guys see it?

• 29. Homey replies at 17th August 2008, 8:32 am :

  Man it looks like I need to type it all again.
  Anyway this is where I am at.

  James…
  The Roto rule is 1 player allowed for every 12 teams playing. So with that rule in mind I use 12000 teams as a base thats easy to keep track of.

  I will use that 12000 # for this post. So if there are 12000 teams playing then there are only 1000 Tom Bradys allowed. If he is on 1000 teams he is then sold out. If he is on 900 then he is at 90% and so on.

  So lets use player A and B.
  Both Player A and B are at the exact same Roto $ amount right now.
  If Player A is at 90% of availability and player B is only at 10% when the market opens.
  Then will their prices change to reflect that at opening bell??
  Will it be almost an immediate change? Will it be a controlled change over the first day or 2? Or will it take the entire first week before their prices get to where they should be?

  What concerns me is this.
  90% of all people that are signed up now and that will be signed up before opening bell, will have their teams bought before the opening bell. I think the avoiding trading costs and now willing to risk a player dropping in price to buy them will be a factor. So during the first week of trading I don’t see much buying and selling going on.
  If Roto allows the 90% guy to go from $50 to $75 in the first 5 minutes of the opening then we need to be on that.
  If Roto monitors it and doesn’t allow those changes to happen then we need to adjust our strategies accordingly.
  I think Roto will monitor and control the market the first week.
  If you guys are certain they will let it fly then its on and we need to all grab the steals, err um I mean the deals, right now.

  I also believe that after week 1 thats when the madness will happen. The day the market opens after the first weeks games is when the selling and buying will be nuts.

  So if Roto allows for the market to reflect actual player value on the first day or 2 then we all would be smart to find the 10 to 13 best deals out there and buy them up. Sell them then when you think they reach their peak value and then field your team for week 1 with $40 or $50 left over to buy some guys that go off in week 1 and could gain a bunch when the market opens again.

  what do you guys think?

• 30. hirebrad replies at 17th August 2008, 5:38 pm :

  I wish Justin would chime in Homey He could answer everything.

  Okay, a player’s value goes up when he is bought and down when he is sold, right? Okay, so after further thought, the only players that are going to go up and down are players that are bought and sold after the opening bell.

  Therefore, the players that are going to go up in value are the ones that gain value after the opening bell. So, any changes in value prior to the opening bell are going to have little to no effect. Ie. Tarvaris Jackson got hurt, if he was out for the season, people would have sold him prior to the opening bell, not taken a loss and then his value would be static at opening bell (No sells, no buys).

  So, pick players that are going to perform well in Week 1, let their value go up and then sell them at opening bell on Tuesday after Week 1. Yes, I changed my strategy, thanks to everyone’s advice.

• 31. patlee1970 replies at 18th August 2008, 12:42 pm :

  In discussing what will happen on the opening bell, can we draw any comparisons from baseball? I didn’t play, but can someone who did chime in?? Did players have immediate changes in their prices based on how many had bought them before opening bell? Was the system similar at all? What can we learn from that?

• 32. Rik replies at 18th August 2008, 3:17 pm :

  I don’t understand how this could be. If T Jackson gets hurt and is out for the season just before the market opens, wouldn’t his backup go up in value? (Whoever his backup is)
  Maybe Pennington is a better example – Wouldn’t McCown go up in the same scenario?

• 33. Homey replies at 19th August 2008, 9:36 am :

  Well Brad..
  Jib has not said a word.

  But today I did get info from someone who did play baseball.

  They said it will be closer to your original idea. Players will go up at opening bell based on how many buy them and still have them on the roster when the market opens.

  That is based on what happened in baseball. I do not know if its adjusted for football.

  So with that in mind lets see if we can get a list of the best bargains going.

• 34. Richard replies at 19th August 2008, 4:42 pm :

  Lesson learned from football last year:

  High priced players ( Like Brady ) have a lot more downside potential than upside at the opening bell.

  Most of the teams that want Brady will budget buying Brady before the bell. Teams that have Brady and keep Brady do not effect the price after the bell.

  But many teams after the bell will realize they can’t afford Brady and sell him to balance their team.

  If more teams sell Brady after the bell than buy Brady after the bell, then this will create downward momentum and his price will drop.

  That’s my opinion. I’ll be buying Brady AFTER the opening bell.

• 35. AC replies at 22nd August 2008, 7:53 pm :

  I like Delhomme as a potential riser: his elbow looks good, and they’ve gotten some help for Smith at receiver. Smith’s suspension might slow his production down, though.

  Also, watch Nate Burleson: he’s priced like a WR3, but will be getting the looks of WR1 for a few weeks until Engram and Branch are back in action.

• 36. hirebrad replies at 28th August 2008, 12:08 pm :

  Any thoughts going into market open? I posted in the RH forum my thoughts. One thing I kept to myself. I think Favre will have a good first week. I might take a gamble on a Favre/Cotchery combo play against a D that gives up points to the passing game.

• 37. James replies at 28th August 2008, 4:59 pm :

  I really like the eagles Dst for only 6 bucks. They play the rams week 1 and we know plenty of pressure will be on Bulger, and I dont think Sjax will be completely ready that soon!

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